As Canadians ditch U.S. real estate, some predict a flood north

Many Canadians who once bought vacation homes in the United States are now selling them and returning north. Real estate agents in popular winter destinations like Florida, Arizona, and California report a sharp rise in Canadian listings—some seeing six to nine times more compared to last year. These properties were once key to the lifestyle of long-time “snowbirds,” who spent cold Canadian winters in sunnier climates.

A primary reason behind this trend is growing tension between Canada and the U.S. under President Trump. Comments about turning Canada into a U.S. state, alongside steep tariffs on Canadian goods and stricter visitor rules—such as fingerprinting all foreign visitors staying beyond 30 days—have left many Canadians feeling unwelcome. This sense of unease has hit home for many buyers of U.S. vacation properties.

Money matters also play a big role. The Canadian dollar has weakened to its lowest level in over 20 years, making it much more expensive for Canadians to pay U.S. property taxes, insurance, and homeowners association fees in U.S. dollars. At the same time, rising home values in the U.S. mean sellers can walk away with healthy profits.

Adding to the pressure, U.S. real estate markets in these warm-weather states are already dealing with challenges like high insurance costs and climate-related risks from hurricanes. With fewer Canadians buying and more selling, agents say markets in Florida and Arizona are feeling softer than usual.

This wave of sales is not just about vacation properties. Canadian investment in U.S. commercial real estate has also slowed. Since 2015, Canadians have invested over \$184 billion in U.S. real estate, more than any other international buyer, but the current political climate has caused investors—including big pension funds—to pause or reconsider deals.

Some industry experts believe this shift may spark a longer-term change. Canadian sellers are exploring alternatives like Mexico, Portugal, or even Europe for their second homes. Meanwhile, Canada is tightening regulations on foreign buyers, which could reshape where and how Canadians invest in property—both at home and abroad.