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Calgary Real Estate Board Downgrades 2025 Forecast Due To "Heightened Uncertainty"

Calgary Real Estate Board Downgrades 2025 Forecast Due To "Heightened Uncertainty"

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) has lowered its outlook for home sales in 2025, citing growing uncertainty in the economy. Earlier this year, in January, CREB expected sales to be strong—forecasting above 26,000 units sold, which would have been about 20 percent higher than normal market trends.

But now, midway through 2025, that forecast has been revised downward. CREB now expects only around 23,000 homes to sell this year, reflecting a drop of roughly 11.5 percent from its earlier estimate. This shift is tied to spring’s heightened uncertainty, especially concerns about trade tariffs, which have weighed on buyer confidence.

Despite the sales downgrade, housing starts remain at record-high levels, particularly in multi-family rental buildings. As these new developments come online, they are expected to add more choices for renters, potential buyers, and existing homeowners—feeding more homes into the resale market.

Because inventory is rising and sales are slowing, prices are expected to ease. Instead of modest growth, the resale market should move toward balance—away from the extreme seller’s market of recent years. That will ease pressure on prices and give buyers more room to negotiate.

Looking at specific property types, prices for detached and semi-detached homes are expected to see modest gains—likely under 2 percent after their strong performance in 2024. In contrast, prices for row houses and apartments may fall slightly, as much as 2 percent, following last year’s double-digit gains.

CREB points to trade tensions—especially uncertainty around U.S.-imposed tariffs on Canadian exports—as a key driver behind this slowdown. While Alberta’s economy benefits from strong job gains and a growing population, no region is immune to global economic swings, which can dampen consumer spending and home-buying intentions. Despite remaining higher than the low levels seen in the 2015–2020 period, the market is now expected to settle back toward long-term norms, offering a more sustainable, balanced pace for both buyers and sellers.