Canada’s Immigration Exodus Kicks Off W/Record NPR Outflows

In the third quarter of 2024, Canada experienced a significant departure of non-permanent residents (NPRs), with approximately 249,700 individuals leaving the country. This marks an 85% increase compared to the same period the previous year, representing the largest outflow on record since data collection began in 2021.

Despite this substantial exodus, the overall net flow of NPRs remained positive during this quarter. Canada welcomed 296,000 new NPRs, resulting in a net gain, though this figure reflects a 35% decrease from the prior year. This trend indicates challenges in sustaining previous growth levels, as fewer individuals are arriving, and more are choosing to depart.

In response to rapid population growth, which has surged by 150% since 2021 to reach 2.96 million people, the Canadian government announced plans in the fourth quarter of 2024 to reduce the number of NPR visas by approximately 450,000. This strategy aims to manage the population increase and address concerns related to housing shortages and the rising cost of living.

The government anticipates that up to 1.2 million NPR visas will expire in the coming year, with around one million holders not qualifying for permanent residency. Officials have expressed concerns about the potential for individuals to overstay their visas. However, the recent high rate of voluntary departures suggests that many are choosing to leave upon visa expiration.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller acknowledged that the government should have acted sooner to manage the influx of temporary migrants. He emphasized the importance of preventing the dialogue around immigration from becoming weaponized and confirmed that temporary migrants must leave the country upon visa expiration, with deportation for non-compliance.

These developments highlight the challenges Canada faces in balancing population growth with resource availability. The government's recent policy adjustments reflect efforts to manage these issues effectively.