Canadian International Student Shift: Guinea Surpasses China, Indian Demand Crashes

Canada has seen a big change in where its international students come from. In March, the number of new study permit applications dropped sharply, and more interestingly, the countries behind those applications are shifting fast.

India, once the top source of new study permits, now makes up about 20% of current applications—a sharp fall from 36% in 2024. That decline comes amid political tensions between Canada and India, as well as growing concerns that Indian students are being mistreated or misled after arrival in Canada.

Another change is Nigeria, which remains the second-largest source at about 9.7%—similar to last year. Yet the big surprise is Guinea, a small country with roughly 1% of China’s population, jumping into third place with 7.6% of applications so far this year.

Guinea overtook China, which now finds itself in fourth place with only 5.3% of applications. This shift reflects more than academic interest. Many analysts link the surge in Guinea to a military coup and an increase in asylum claims among students arriving on study permits.

Experts warn that Canada’s image as a top education destination is being replaced by a perception of it as an immigration gateway. The growth of “diploma mills” and schools focused on quick study-to-immigration routes has damaged Canada’s reputation abroad.

With overall study permit volumes down—March saw a 43% drop to 18.6 thousand, and year-to-date applications are down 54%—policy tightening is clearly in effect. As Canada enforces stricter rules, its student mix is changing fast, with traditional sources like China and India losing ground to unexpected ones like Guinea.