Canadian Population Update Trims Nearly 4 Million People

Canada's recent changes in immigration policies are expected to significantly impact the nation's population growth. According to Statistics Canada's latest projections, adjustments made in November 2024 by the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will lead to a notable decrease in the country's long-term population forecast. This shift is anticipated to reduce the projected population by approximately 4 million people over the coming decades.

The updated projections indicate a sharp slowdown in population growth. The medium-growth scenario, known as the M1 projection, suggests a growth rate of 0.3% for this year, followed by a 0.2% decline in 2026. This is a significant change from the rapid growth experienced in 2023. Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO, notes that after this dip, the growth rate is expected to stabilize at around 0.8% annually, a rate last seen in 2015.

The impact of these policy changes will vary across provinces. Regions like British Columbia and Ontario, which have a higher proportion of non-permanent residents, are expected to experience more pronounced effects. These provinces saw significant growth between 2021 and 2024, but are now projected to face below-average growth in 2025 and 2026. This shift could lead to noticeable changes in local markets, such as a weakening in rental demand.

While a two-year slowdown might seem minor, its long-term effects are substantial due to the compounding nature of population growth. Previous projections estimated Canada's population would reach 63 million by 2073. The latest update revises this figure down to 59 million by 2074, a reduction of 4 million people. This decrease could have significant implications for assets and services that were planned based on the earlier, higher population forecasts.

It's important to recognize that these projections are based on current models that consider factors like birth rates, migration, and existing immigration policies. They do not account for unforeseen events such as economic recessions or changes in global migration trends, which could further influence population dynamics.

Additionally, many of Canada's primary source countries for immigrants are rapidly developing. As these nations' middle classes expand, economic opportunities there may become more attractive, potentially reducing the number of individuals seeking to move to Canada. This adds another layer of uncertainty to long-term population projections.