CREA cuts 2025 forecast again but says home sales are rebounding from ‘chaotic start’

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has again lowered its forecast for home sales in 2025, showing caution about the year ahead. Earlier in July, CREA revised expectations after previously predicting stable or even rising sales. Now, it expects about 469,500 homes will change hands this year, a drop of around three percent compared with 2024.

Despite that, CREA sees signs the market could be turning a corner. In June, home sales rose by 3.5 percent compared to the same month last year. Even month-to-month, sales climbed 2.8 percent from May, using a seasonally adjusted view.

CREA also cut its outlook for the national average home price in 2025. The new forecast puts it at about $677,400, which is roughly $10,000 lower than CREA had expected back in April.

In June, the average home’s selling price dropped 1.3 percent from the year before, landing at about $691,600.

Senior economist Shaun Cathcart at CREA acknowledges the year began in a “chaotic” way. Still, he says the rebound that was expected earlier may have been delayed only by a few months. He notes the market might just be getting back on track after being hit by uncertainty and shifting buyer expectations.

In short, CREA sees a modest drop in overall sales and lower average prices in 2025. But recent data hint that home sales are recovering, offering hope that the housing market is finding its footing after a bumpy start.