CREA lowers housing market forecast for 2024 amid 'holding pattern' for home sales

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) recently downgraded its housing market forecast for 2024, citing slow sales despite the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts. CREA now predicts about 468,900 properties will sell this year, marking a 5.2% rise from 2023, though lower than previous forecasts. The average home price for 2024 is also expected to grow just 0.9% to $683,200.

CREA attributes the tepid market to buyers’ cautious approach, with the central bank’s interest rate cuts having limited impact so far. While September sales rose slightly compared to August, growth remains slower than anticipated, and CREA believes many buyers may be waiting for more substantial rate reductions.

In response, CREA predicts the market may enter a "holding pattern" until spring 2024, when lower rates could stimulate more robust activity. With 185,427 properties listed nationwide at the end of September—a 16.8% rise from last year but still below average—inventory remains relatively tight.

By 2025, CREA projects a stronger rebound, expecting a 6.6% increase in home sales and a 4.4% rise in average prices. However, CREA anticipates that while lower interest rates could boost the market, buyers may act more cautiously than in the past.