Experts Analyse Poilievre and Carney's New Home GST Rebate Policies

Both Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney have proposed eliminating the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on new homes to address Canada's housing affordability crisis. While their goals align, the specifics of their plans differ, leading to varied opinions among experts.

Poilievre's proposal, introduced in October 2024, aims to remove the GST on new homes priced at or below $1.3 million for all buyers. He estimates this could save Canadians up to $65,000, particularly benefiting middle-class families in high-cost cities like Toronto and Vancouver. In contrast, Carney's plan, announced in March 2025, targets first-time homebuyers purchasing new homes under $1 million, with potential savings of up to $50,000.

Experts note that Poilievre's broader approach could stimulate more housing construction by increasing demand across a wider market segment. Economist Mike Moffatt points out that reducing GST for all buyers may lead to a significant supply-side effect, encouraging developers to build more homes. Conversely, Carney's focus on first-time buyers may limit the policy's impact, as many in this group tend to purchase older or smaller homes, which may not qualify for the rebate.

Additionally, the price caps set by both leaders could affect the policies' effectiveness. Poilievre's higher threshold of $1.3 million encompasses a larger portion of the market, potentially aiding more buyers. Carney's $1 million cap, while fiscally conservative, might exclude many homes in expensive urban areas, limiting its reach.

Beyond GST rebates, both leaders have broader housing strategies. Carney proposes creating a crown corporation to build 2.8 million homes over ten years, focusing on utilizing federal lands. However, experts express skepticism about the feasibility of this plan, citing challenges like limited modular housing factories and labor shortages. Poilievre's strategy involves incentivizing municipalities to expedite housing approvals by tying federal infrastructure funding to housing targets, aiming for quicker implementation without establishing new bureaucracies.

In summary, while both GST rebate proposals aim to improve housing affordability, Poilievre's plan offers broader eligibility and potentially greater market stimulation, whereas Carney's targeted approach focuses on assisting first-time buyers. The success of either policy will depend on execution and how well they address the underlying issues in Canada's housing market.