Greater Toronto home sales drop in March amid trade concerns

In March 2025, home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) declined amid growing economic uncertainty, particularly concerning international trade. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported a 2.4% seasonally adjusted decrease in sales from February, totaling 4,221 units. This follows a significant 28.5% drop in February, highlighting a continued slowdown in the housing market.

Year-over-year, sales were down 23.1%, and the TRREB home price index fell 3.8% to $1,050,200. Despite the decline in sales, new listings increased by 28.6% compared to the previous year, with a 9.6% rise from February. This influx of listings suggests that while buyer activity has slowed, seller interest remains strong.

TRREB's chief market analyst, Jason Mercer, attributed the slowdown to trade uncertainty and the upcoming Canadian federal election. The recent decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports has heightened tensions, potentially impacting Canada's economy. In response, newly appointed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called a snap election for April 28 to secure a strong mandate to address the escalating trade conflict.

The GTA market, encompassing Toronto and four surrounding municipalities, serves as a critical barometer for Canada's housing sector. The current downturn reflects broader economic concerns, with potential buyers adopting a cautious approach amid the uncertain trade environment.

Despite the decline in sales, the average selling price in the GTA rose moderately year-over-year by 1.3% to $1,121,615. This suggests that while fewer homes are being sold, competition among buyers remains, particularly in certain neighborhoods. TRREB anticipates that price growth may accelerate during the spring and even more so in the second half of the year, as sales growth catches up with listings growth and sellers’ market conditions start to emerge.

Affordability continues to be a significant challenge for prospective buyers in the Toronto area. Even with forecasts that the Bank of Canada may lower its key interest rate later this year, many individuals find themselves priced out of the market. Population growth has driven demand, keeping prices high despite the decline in sales. As a result, some buyers are considering moving to more affordable areas within the province or even to other provinces.