Is Canada setting itself up for a big home price spike in 2030?

Canada’s real estate scene is showing some signs of life, especially in British Columbia, where several big names in development and brokerage have recently made key hires and promotions. For example, Concert Properties elevated Craig Watters to COO, Wesgroup promoted Meghan Murtha to general counsel, and Wesbild appointed Betty Wong as director of development accounting. Companies like Townline, Cascadia Green Development, Tera Development, Anthem Properties, Zenterra, Ledingham McAllister, and QuadReal also added staff across roles ranging from leasing to finance and leasing operations. These moves suggest industry players are preparing for future activity, even amid a market that has recently felt sluggish.

Still, a flurry of new hires isn't enough to say a sharp rise in home prices by 2030 is guaranteed. Real estate is a complex game of supply, demand, affordability and broader economic conditions. In parts of Canada, especially Ontario and BC, there continues to be an affordability struggle. Predictions show that while prices may grow more modestly into 2027, much of the pent up demand might be met by then, possibly slowing the pace of price increase after that.

Meanwhile, condo markets in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver are showing weakness. Between 2022 and the first quarter of 2025, condo sales in Toronto dropped about 75%, and in Vancouver they fell roughly 37%. This oversupply has led to canceled condo projects and heavy inventory. With so many unsold units on the market, upward price pressure is difficult in the near term.

On the other hand, housing supply across Canada remains a challenge. To make housing affordable by 2030, Canada needs to build about 3.5 million additional units over the next seven years, which is around half a million units a year. But in 2023, only about half of that needed volume was actually built. Unless construction ramps up significantly, Canada may remain stuck in the same affordability crisis, potentially building stronger upward pressure on prices in the late 2020s.

Given these conflicting signals, some development firms are positioning for growth, but broader market indicators point to oversupply and slow construction. It is unlikely Canada is currently setting itself up for a sudden or dramatic spike in home prices by 2030. Rather, what is more likely is a prolonged period of moderate growth or stabilization, followed by a gradual rise if supply doesn’t keep up with lingering demand.

So, is Canada setting itself up for a big home price spike in 2030? Not exactly. The groundwork, like hiring and preparing, is being laid, but troubling trends in affordability, condo overhang, and sluggish construction suggest that any spike is far from assured. If supply fails to catch up, prices may rise steadily over time, but a rapid surge seems unlikely at this point.