“Outliers Of Greater Stability": Toronto Area Sees Uptick In Ultra-Luxury Sales

Despite a shaky national housing market and ongoing trade tension with the United States, certain luxury real estate pockets in Canada have shown surprising resilience. A report from Sotheby’s International Realty Canada highlights that some high-end segments are “outliers of greater stability” and might even perform well as the broader market slows.

In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where overall home sales have dropped to levels not seen since before the pandemic, the ultra-luxury sector tells a different story. In the first quarter of 2025, five homes priced over $10 million sold on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), compared to none in the same period last year. This jump signals that wealthy buyers continue to invest in exclusive properties despite broader market dips.

These ultra-high-end sales were especially common in prestige neighbourhoods such as Rosedale, Forest Hill, and Leslieville, where privacy and limited listings remain key selling points. Moreover, many off-market transactions—those not publicly listed—have also taken place over the $10 million mark, as both buyers and sellers prioritize discretion.

Further down the scale, however, luxury properties in the GTA are seeing declines. Homes over $4 million experienced a 15% drop in sales, while those over $1 million declined by 29% year-over-year, showing that only the very top of the market remains strong.

Comparisons with other Canadian cities further highlight Toronto’s unique situation. Vancouver, for instance, saw a steep retreat in high-end sales, with homes over $4 million down by 48% and no homes over $10 million sold in the same period. In contrast, Montreal and Calgary showed steady demand in the mid-luxury segment, though neither reached the ultra-luxury price point seen in Toronto.

Sotheby’s experts interpret these results as a sign of strong confidence among Canada’s ultra-wealthiest buyers in the GTA. They note that despite a slow general market, wealthy individuals remain willing to pay top prices for high-quality homes in desirable neighbourhoods. As a result, these “outliers of greater stability” could well shape what comes next in Canadian real estate.