Recession fears put Canadians' homebuying plans on hold, says BMO survey

Canadians are tapping the brakes on their homebuying plans as worries about a recession grow, according to a recent Bank of Montreal (BMO) survey. Between March and April 2025, concern that the economy may slide into a recession jumped sharply—from 60 per cent to 74 per cent of respondents. Nearly seven in ten prospective buyers say they’re waiting for interest rates to fall before moving ahead, with many holding out for rates to drop to around 3 per cent or lower.

The survey reveals that 67 per cent of potential homeowners say interest rates strongly influence their decision to buy, and 38 per cent have set a target rate of 3 per cent or less before signing a mortgage. Another 44 per cent admit they’re not sure what rate would make them comfortable enough to commit. This uncertainty is leading many to take a “wait-and-see” stance—even as affordable rates remain elusive.

Adding to this caution, more than half (56 per cent) of those planning to buy feel they've already missed their chance in the current market. That sentiment is particularly strong among Millennials, with 66 per cent saying they believe the ideal moment to purchase has passed. Alongside this, 59 per cent of Canadians still view homeownership as an important life goal, but half believe it’s now harder to achieve than it was a year ago, and two‑thirds feel less confident they’ll ever own a home compared to five years ago.

Even when Canadians do decide to buy, they’re choosing to push their plans out. Of the 38 per cent still planning to purchase soon, only 14 per cent aim to buy during 2025, while 24 per cent expect to wait until 2026 or later. In a sign of desperation, over half (52 per cent) of those with homebuying hopes say they’d be open to moving provinces or even immigrating to another country if it meant they could afford a home.

This shift in attitude is reshaping how Canadians think about owning a home. About 43 per cent of current homeowners say they couldn’t have made their purchase without family help, and 27 per cent of Canadians expect financial support—either for a down payment, renovations, or rent—from parents or grandparents. Shared homeownership is also gaining traction, with 45 per cent considering buying with friends or non-romantic partners—particularly Millennials and Gen Z.

Despite the anxiety, there's still a strong sense that financial stability is possible. Around 70 per cent of Canadians say they feel confident in their personal finances. That said, worries about unexpected bills (82 per cent), general financial health (81 per cent), and housing affordability (72 per cent) continue to weigh heavily. BMO experts say guidance from financial advisors and mortgage professionals could help buyers prepare realistic plans and stay flexible until the market settles.

This BMO survey, part of its Real Financial Progress Index, is based on responses from 2,500 Canadian adults collected from March 3 to 26, 2025, and a follow-up with 2,001 adults in April. It comes amidst a backdrop of cooling housing markets—sales and prices are slipping, and buyers are more cautious—highlighting a broader loss of confidence in places like British Columbia and southern Ontario.